Research

Biofuels Policy and Innovation Impacts: Evidence from Biofuels and Agricultural Patent Indicators,” (with Kelly P. Nelson and Zachary S. Brown) Energy Policy (2022) doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112767

In the early 2000s, governments implemented policies stimulating the use of ethanol and biodiesel to reduce carbon emissions and encourage domestic energy production. Blend mandates requiring gasoline or diesel to contain a minimum percentage of these biofuels were a favored policy instrument. Theoretical work by Clancy and Moschini (2017) concluded that, if innovation were stimulated by mandates, then the socially optimal mandate would be higher than if innovation were not possible. We test the impact of blend mandates and other biofuels policies on innovation using measures of patenting activity that correspond with research effort and research output. Our analysis shows that ethanol blend mandates significantly increased both R&D effort and quality-weighted innovation output in biofuels technologies while reducing the R&D inputs to plant technologies. This suggests that biofuels innovation increased in response to the policies, with firms substituting some R&D effort away from plant technologies research. Despite decreased R&D effort, output of plant innovation held steady as effort shifted to biofuels, supporting the presence of a spillover effect between biofuels innovation and plant innovation. We find that biodiesel blend mandates did not significantly impact R&D efforts in either plant or biofuels technologies. Furthermore, policies other than blend mandates had varying effects, ranging from limited increases in R&D activity to significant decreases in innovation. JEL Codes: O31, O38, Q16, Q48, Q55.

“Fall in the Sea, Eventually? A Green Paradox in Climate Adaptation for Coastal Housing Markets,” (with Steven J. Dundas), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management (2020), doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102381

Efficient adaptation to climate change in coastal areas is likely to require public policy interventions. New policies or expectations of policy changes that impact private assets, such as housing, may generate economic incentives that result in unintended consequences. We examine the effect on new housing development resulting from a scientific report by a regulatory agency mandating coastal communities in North Carolina (NC) consider sea-level rise when developing new land-use policies. Estimates from our preferred triple-differences model suggest the policy announcement increased building permits by 32% in coastal NC counties until permitting returned to pre-policy levels after a moratorium on new regulations was passed by the state legislature. Our results are supported by numerous robustness checks, including alternative controls, placebo tests and a parcel-level model in Dare County, NC. This green paradox in coastal climate adaptation implies that hundreds of millions of dollars in additional unregulated housing was constructed in NC locations vulnerable to sea-level rise likely due to perverse incentives generated by a policy signal.

“Untangling Willingness to Pay for Public Land Use Change: An Analysis of Greenways in Raleigh, North Carolina”

Since 2010 Wake County, NC, and the City of Raleigh, have experienced prolific growth of outdoor amenities, primarily financed through the passage of parks and open space bond referenda. Wake County currently has over 100 miles of off-street, paved greenway trails connecting schools, parks museums and commercial areas, 65 miles of which have been added since 2010. As a result of the expansion of the Capital Area Greenway System, several neighborhoods in Wake County now have access to new recreation and transportation opportunities. This research identifies techniques for estimating the effects of expanding greenway infrastructure and to test for heterogeneous greenway demand across households. Multiple linear regression is used to evaluate the capitalization effect of individual greenway trails as well as the trail system as a whole. I find heterogeneity in capitalized values ranging from -6 to 10 percent dependent on spatial location.

“Unmasking Outdoor Preferences: An Analysis of the Effects of COVID-19 on Recreation Behavior” (with Sophie Croome)

A number of studies have examined park visitation patterns and consumer preferences using available national and state park visitation data (Kupfer et al., 2021; Volenec et al., 2021; Wood et al., 2013; Yan et al., 2021a). However, municipal park visitation remains largely understudied due to the difficulty and costliness associated with data collection and analysis. This study utilizes high frequency mobile device location data to measure changes in visitation to municipal and state parks and other outdoor recreation points of interest (POIs) after COVID-19 mask mandates were instituted. We exploit spatial and temporal variation in COVID-19 mandates at the county level in the U.S. state of Idaho. We find an increase in POI visitation in areas without mask mandates. Visitation rates were approximately seven percent lower in areas with a mask mandate compared to non-mandate counties. Our research brings insight on the behavioral response to restrictions and on recreational choice behavior.

“Moving to the Country: Understanding the Effects of COVID-19 on Property Values and Farmland Loss” (with Kelsey Johnson, Christoph Nolte, Jodi Brandt, Matt Williams, Theresa Nogeire-McRae and Jayash Paudel)

As human populations grow, one strategy for meeting housing demand is through the development of agricultural land and other open space, which can generate negative externalities. This may be addressed at local, state, or federal levels with land-use planning, including farmland preservation policies (FPPA, 1981; Hunter 2022). Efficient land-use planning in the presence of competing land uses requires knowledge of development risk, housing preferences, and the full costs of farmland loss. We conduct a national scale hedonic analysis to investigate how COVID-19 has affected property prices in suburban and rural areas with high development risk and for the purpose of understanding the effects of COVID-19 driven shifts in housing preferences. This analysis is made possible through the use of data on U.S. housing transactions provided through the ZTRAX program (Zillow, 2020). Our analysis demonstrates that the pandemic caused differential price impacts across 21 states, suggesting heterogeneous shifts in preferences. Furthermore, our estimates suggest heterogeneous price effects driven by the characteristics of nearby urban areas, with prices appreciating faster on land at risk located near small urban areas. Our analysis finds that development pressure, as measured through transaction prices, changed in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Works in Progress

“Unexpected Violence and Property Values: An Analysis of Public School Gun Violence”(with Laura Taylor and Christopher Timmins)

“Willingness to Pay for Green Energy, Green Jobs and Green Views: A Choice Experiment on Offshore Wind Energy” (with Sanja Lutzeyer, Daniel Phaneuf and Laura Taylor)

“Valuing Information and Perceived Risk from Water Contamination Discoveries” (with Steven J. Dundas)

“Conservation Easements and Land Values: Estimating the Effects of Conservation Policies on Residential Development and Farmland Loss”( with Kelsey Johnson, Jodi Brandt, Matt Williams, Theresa Nogeire-McRae and Jayash Paudel)